What the September minutes add
Most participants judged that another increase would likely be appropriate by year-end. They also stressed that each meeting would be approached with an open mind, with decisions depending on incoming information, the outlook and the balance of risks.
The minutes describe the September 15–16 discussion, not a new October rate decision. The target range remains 3.75%–4.00% following September’s 25-basis-point increase.
The dot plot moved higher
The September projections put the median year-end federal funds rate at 4.1% for both 2026 and 2027, up from June’s 3.8% and 3.6%. These are rounded projections of the target-range midpoint, not the current target range or a commitment to future decisions.
For 2026, median PCE inflation is 3.7% and core PCE inflation 3.4%, versus 3.6% and 3.3% in June. Growth is projected at 2.3% and unemployment at 4.1%. Growth and inflation are Q4-over-Q4 measures; unemployment is a Q4 average.
Official sources · checked October 9, 2026
The result and what comes next
01
Decision · +25 bp
The new target range is 3.75%–4.00%, approved 12–0. This is the published result, not a forecast.
02
Projections · 4.1%
The median year-end rate projection for 2026 is 4.1%. Individual projections remain conditional and do not promise another hike.
03
Next meeting · October 27–28
The countdown refers to the next scheduled decision. The September result remains above for reference.
September Fed decision: key questions
Do the minutes guarantee an October hike?
No. They record participants’ views in September, including a conditional outlook for another increase by year-end. They do not commit the Committee to a move at the October meeting.
How much did the Fed raise rates?
The September 16 decision raised the target range by 25 basis points, from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%, with a 12–0 vote.
Does the 4.1% dot-plot median mean rates are now 4.1%?
No. The current target range is 3.75%–4.00%. The 4.1% figure is the rounded median projection for the year-end target-range midpoint.
When is the next FOMC meeting?
The next scheduled meeting is October 27–28, 2026. Its outcome has not been decided by the September projections.