September CPI: actuals versus expectations
| Measure | August | Consensus | September actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline · MoM | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| Headline · YoY | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.7% |
| Core · MoM | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Core · YoY | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.6% |
Consensus from TD Economics’ October 9 table, checked October 12. These are market forecasts, not BLS predictions. Monthly changes are seasonally adjusted; annual changes are unadjusted. Core excludes food and energy.
September actuals · BLS · Checked October 14, 2026Dated consensus table · TD EconomicsAugust CPI: actual results versus expectations
BLS released August CPI on September 11. The pre-release forecast is retained alongside July’s figures.
| Measure | Expected | July | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline CPI · MoM | +0.4% | +0.1% | +0.4% |
| Headline CPI · YoY | +3.4% | +3.4% | +3.4% |
| Core CPI · MoM | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.3% |
| Core CPI · YoY | +2.4% | +2.5% | +2.4% |
Monthly changes are seasonally adjusted; annual changes are unadjusted. Core CPI excludes food and energy.
Core monthly CPI rose 0.3%, above the saved 0.2% forecast by 0.1 percentage point. The other three readings matched the forecast. Core annual inflation eased from 2.5% to 2.4%, even as the monthly pace increased.
Checked September 11, 2026 · Forecast published September 10
September results versus August
August headline inflation was 0.4% monthly and 3.4% annually; core was 0.3% and 2.4%. These four August comparisons are unchanged in the September release.
Why CPI can matter for markets
CPI is one of the most closely followed measures of consumer inflation. It can influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy, Treasury yields and interest-rate-sensitive parts of the stock market.
A single reading should be viewed with context. Revisions, monthly details and differences from consensus expectations can matter more than the headline alone.
BLS results and release calendar
Reading the released figures
01
Separate monthly and annual rates
Monthly figures are seasonally adjusted; annual comparisons shown here are unadjusted.
02
What differed from the forecast?
The October 9 TD Economics table put headline CPI at 0.6% monthly and 3.6% annually, and core at 0.2% and 2.5%. Those pre-release estimates remain unchanged in the comparison table.
03
When is the next CPI release?
October CPI is scheduled for November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET (EST), before the opening bell.
CPI release FAQ
What differed from the forecast?
The October 9 TD Economics table put headline CPI at 0.6% monthly and 3.6% annually, and core at 0.2% and 2.5%. Those pre-release estimates remain unchanged in the comparison table.
When is the next CPI release?
October CPI is scheduled for November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET (EST), before the opening bell.