July baseline, August results still pending
The July release reported headline PCE inflation of 0.2% month over month and 3.7% year over year. Core PCE, excluding food and energy, rose 0.2% monthly and 3.3% annually. These are July observations, not August forecasts.
As of September 21, no verified numerical August consensus is included here. August actuals are pending. BEA will also incorporate its annual update, so the prior readings may be revised.
Read inflation together with spending
Compare core monthly inflation with any dated forecast available near release, then examine headline inflation and real consumption. PCE covers consumer spending differently from CPI; the two measures are not interchangeable.
July real PCE increased less than 0.1% monthly, shown as 0.0% in the rounded table. Revisions can change the comparison: use the new release’s revised July figures when assessing August.
BEA sources · checked September 21
September 30: three checks
01
8:30 AM ET · PCE
Headline and core prices, personal income and consumption arrive in the same report.
02
Same time · GDP
BEA also schedules the Q2 GDP third estimate and annual updates at 8:30 AM. A market move cannot automatically be attributed to PCE alone.
03
After release · Compare like with like
Separate monthly and annual inflation, revised prior data and real versus nominal spending.
PCE release questions
When is August PCE released?
September 30, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. This is before the regular U.S. stock market opens.
Are the July figures market forecasts?
No. The 0.2% monthly headline and core readings are reported July data. August actuals and a verified numerical consensus are not yet included.
What does core PCE exclude?
Food and energy prices. Core PCE is still a price index, distinct from inflation-adjusted consumer spending.